sentix ASR Essentials 35-2016

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Economic expectations bad for Bunds, but good for Chinese equities

The latest sentix survey underlines the continued interplay between macro and market expectations. In the case of the Eurozone (EZ), the sentix Economic Expectations Index further improved, rising from +4.8 to +6.8 in September. At a market level this improvement has meant economics have become a less bullish theme for EZ bonds over the last couple of months. Economic expectations are more elevated on Asia ex-Japan, with the region’s expectations index hitting its highest level since May 2015. This chimes with the continued improvement in survey readings based on investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Chinese equities. Improving expectations on the economy are supporting investors’ constructive views on Chinese equities medium-term strategic outlook (see Page 2 for charts).

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The global trend points upwards

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Economic expectations for the eurozone continue to improve. The September data of the “first mover” for the euro zone reveals that both the current situation (+4.5) as well as expectations (+6.75) have slightly improved. Consequently, the overall index rises from 4.4 points to 5.6 points. The catch-up process of the emerging market economies overcompensates the heterogeneous developments of the industrialised world regions. Therefore, the global trend points upwards.

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Börsenpsychologie: Emotion ist stärker als Ratio

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Smart Investor im Gespräch mit Manfred Hübner, Gründer und Geschäftsführer der sentix GmbH

zum Artikel im Smart Investor 09 2016.

sentix Investmentmeinung 34-2016

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Gewinnmitnahme-Bereitschaft bei Gold steigt

Gold hat in diesem Jahr viele Anleger positiv überrascht. Nach den desaströsen Jahren 2013 bis 2015 haben sich immer mehr Investmenthäuser aus diesem Asset zurückgezogen. Gold schien als sicherer Fluchthafen ausgedient zu haben. Als wir im sentix Jahresausblick 2016 unsere Goldprognose auf 1.500 US-Dollar setzen, sorgte dieser Schritt für vielseitiges Aufsehen. Immerhin bedeutete das damalige Kursziel (bei einem Stand von 1.050 USD pro Feinunze) ein Plus von über 40%.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: keine

Klicken Sie hier für die aktuelle Investmentmeinung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

Superficial ease of tensions

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Tensions within the euro zone are easing in August. The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) has fallen -4.6 points to 15.7 points, hence, significantly below the “magic” 20 points threshold. Overall, investors believe that the risk of the euro zone falling apart has decreased as risk sensitiveness for the euro periphery had fallen simultaneously. Only the continuously weak condition of the Italian banking industry, as well as lacklustre economic dynamic in Europe, emit risks.

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