sentix ASR Essentials 49-2016

Written by Patrick Hussy | 11 December 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Near-term optimism hits historic highs as Fed meeting looms

The latest sentix surveys suggests near-term optimism on equity markets globally has reached extremely elevated levels (see Chart 1), heading into a week that could see the Fed tighten policy for the first time since last December. In a European context, sentiment has likely been bolstered by growing investor optimism on Banks and cyclical sectors such as Basic Resources. However, at an asset level, it is also notable that survey respondents have become a little less downbeat on the medium-term outlook for bonds. Indeed, the gap between medium-term strategic bias readings on Bunds versus the EuroSTOXX has begun to reverse from recent lows. High optimism on equities may steal the near-term sentiment spotlight, but opinions on the medium-term outlook for markets are also worth watching. See page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 48-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 05 December 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

There are no translations available.

Der Jahresausblick 2017 wirft seine Schatten voraus

Wir arbeiten derzeit intensiv an unseren „Zehn Ideen für 2017“, dem neuen sentix Jahresausblick. Bitte bestellen Sie diesen schon jetzt vor, damit Sie ab Erscheinungstag sofort Zugriff darauf haben. Aus diesem Grund erfolgt keine ausführliche Investmentmeinung. Dennoch ergeben sich für uns heute positive Indikationen für unsere Aktienmärkte, aus dem „Abschluss“ der Wahlunsicherheit in Italien und der günstigen Lage in den TD-Indizes für deutsche und Euroland-Aktien.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Deutsche Aktien, Euroland Aktien

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US-Mania - Setback for the Eurozone

Written by Patrick Hussy | 04 December 2016
Posted in sentix Economic News

The sentix Economic Indices show as one of the first published leading indicators after the US election a remarkable shift in economic expectations. Investors entirely revise their expectations for the US economy and turn euphoric. Expectations jump by 20.5 points. Another beneficiary of the surprising US election result is Japan. The surge in the US Dollar causes the Japanese Yen to decline which should boost the export-driven economy. While the US, Japan and the sentix Global Aggregate Index benefit, only Europe trails behind. The headline index for the Eurozone slides 3.1 points. The Global Aggregate Index shows a plus of 3.1 points.

sentix ASR Essentials 48-2016

Written by Patrick Hussy | 04 December 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Macro expectations bearish for Bunds and EZ versus US equities

The latest sentix survey Economic indices revealed a fall in eurozone economic expectations in December (down 4 points to 8.3) set against a post-US election jump in expectations for the US economy (the largest increase in US expectations in the survey’s history, at 20+ points). Such changes in economic expectations chime with investors’ less positive medium-term strategic bias on Eurozone (EZ) equities (see Chart 6, p3), as well as their negative implied bias on EZ versus US equities. In the case of bonds, economics are also seen as a notably bearish theme for Bunds, albeit investors have become a little less negative on the medium-term outlook for bunds as compared to a week ago (see Chart 9, p4). See Page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 47-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 28 November 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

There are no translations available.

Gold-Sentiment verbessert, aber nicht gut genug?

Gold-Fans hatten die letzten Wochen nicht viel zu lachen. Entgegen der Erwartung vieler Marktteilnehmer, die bei einem Wahlsieg Trumps mit steigenden Gold-Notierungen rechneten, kam es völlig anders: Die Zinsen stiegen kräftig und Gold kam in der Folge gehörig unter Druck. Aus Sicht der sentix-Daten bestand das Problem jedoch in einem zu bullischen Sentiment vor der Wahl und einer zu offensiven Anlegerpositionierung. In beiden Sphären zeichnet sich eine Verbesserung ab.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Keine