sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

Dark memories of 2007

At the end of 2018, the sentix economic indices awaken gloomy memories of the pre-crisis year 2007. The overall economic index for the euro zone falls for the fourth time in a row to -0.3, the lowest value since December 2014. Both the situation and expectations collapse. Looking at the international environment, there is practically no glimmer of hope, as even the hitherto strong US stocks are falling significantly. Now the (monetary) policy is called for!

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Momentum continues to crumble

In November, economic momentum in the global economy continues to weaken. With the exception of Latin America, we are measuring a weakening of situation assessments for all regions of the world. At the same time, most of the expectation values remain negative. In the euro area, the overall index fell from 11.4 to 8.8 points. The situation remains clearly positive at 29.3, but the slowdown continues. There are many reasons for this.

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Is the US economy overheating?

The economic development in the individual regions of the world continues to be uneven. Overall, however, the current assessments of the approximately 1,000 investors surveyed by sentix remain relatively relaxed. This is due not insignificantly to the very good assessment of the US economy, where we are once again measuring an all-time high in the current situation index. This is increasingly causing inflation fears among investors, which in turn should prompt the central banks to continue their restrictive monetary policy. This also seems to be one of the reasons why the majority of expectation indices remain slightly negative.

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Emerging markets on a downward trend

In the last two months, investors have hoped that the economic downturn will be short-lived. This hope was largely lost at the beginning of September. From the perspective of the more than 1,000 investors surveyed by sentix, the economic sky darkens significantly, especially for the emerging markets. And this also has an impact on the developed markets.

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Concerns about trade disputes diminish

The summer heat in Europe is also causing economic temperatures to rise again. The overall Euro zone index rose by 2.6 points to 14.7 points in August. A complete all-clear cannot yet be given, because with negative expectations, the economy is still in a cooling off phase. But investors seem to see the dangers of an escalation in the trade dispute initiated by US President Trump much less acute.

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